A escasos 2 días para que Facebook salga a bolsa, quiero aprovechar la ocasión para facilitaros una opinión personal de una persona que trabaja para una importante consultora, cuya publicación es exclusiva de este blog.
Pero me gustaría antes de proseguir con una pequeña recopilación de noticias que se han publicado en las últimas 24 horas sobre su debut como preámbulo a lo que rodea a su debut en el mercado de valores.
- Facebook anunciará que sacará un 25 % más de acciones a bolsa (Fte: Expansión.com)
- Tras la reciente compra de Instagram, Facebook adquiere la aplicación para realizar y compartir fotografías LightBox (Fte: Telecinco)
- General Motors dejará de contratar publicidad en Facebook (Fte: Expansión)
Esto es un gran ejemplo de las muchas ventajas que proporciona el llevar tantos años en el sector de las nuevas tecnologías, conocer valiosos datos, valoraciones y perspectivas diferentes, que te hacen replantear o modificar tu pensamiento, así como visualizar una serie de factores que no siempre tienes en cuenta (Mil gracias! Ya sabes quién y es todo un orgullo publicarlo).
Así que os hago partícipes para que podáis leer, analizar y opinar sobre un punto de vista muy diferente al que nos venden los grandes medios, expertos y consultores. Espero que os resulte realmente interesante.
I AM NOT GOING TO BUY FACEBOOK´S SHARES
Lately i have heard a lot of people talking about the possibility of the existence of a social media bubble…..
I don´t really think they are right. Times are changing and Social Media is a very new market with a very uncertain future. Within a few years we will see new mergers and acquisitions and maybe, some companies will go to bankrupt but that really means “a bubble”?, is it not a normal and necessary step for progressing?. Why when we talk about new markets we always call it “a bubble”? Wouldn´t it be better to talk about the possibility of the existence of a social media “adjustment” as we name it when we talk about matured markets?
On the other hand, I don´t think the current “theoretical value” of the social media companies are the correct either, at least in one case: FACEBOOK. Especially if you consider (as I do) that the current value is the Net Present Value of the potential profits that a company could get in the future.
It is an unquestionable fact that Facebook is the biggest and top 1 social network of the world. What they have done until a few months ago is very impressive. But, nowadays Facebook is a company that takes over other companies (and not exactly cheap) in spite of being (like it used to be) a company that tries new things, adapts itself and innovates.
During the last 6 months I have had the opportunity to travel to Brazil, China and Europe several times.
Regarding China, I would like to say that I have seen first hand how big social media companies are trying to compete inside the biggest market in the world while Facebook, despite of the fact they did the hardest job in the beginning , didn´t focus on it after Chinese Government banned it. I don´t know if during the recent visit to China Mark Zuckerberg took advantage of closing some agreement or studying why Chinese people is using VPN connections
Brazil is a good news for Facebook . As has already happened in Europe, Facebook has penetrated very fast. I really think Facebook has the skill to do that, especially in those people that are using the social networks for the first time. But I also think after using it for some months people move to another type of product. That is the reason why I think thousands of European and American Facebook users are starting to use fresh and more useful products and if facebook doesn´t change its strategy they will leave it forever
In terms of “A site to share ideas or comments” Facebook is no longer number 1. Microblogging sites such as Twitter or Weibo are really better, faster and more modern than Facebook
As far as “a place to share photos or videos”, Facebook now has very serious competitors. Proof of this is the fact that this week Facebook has taken over Instagram (a free application for smartphones…) at the price of one billion dollars
And if anyone still thinks Facebook is the number one site for carrying out marketing activity or promotion they should take a look at the new personalized e-commerce sites….
Besides that, the latest changes in Facebook profiles and tools for “spying” your friends are not exactly the best decisions that they have ever made.
I don´t mean Facebook is not going to get a successful IPO (it could happen) but if they don´t change their strategy, adapts to new times and especially If they don´t try new things like they used to do, no matter how many companies they think to take over, they will lose its dominant position for sure
(This is only a personal opinion. I didn´t look up any data bases, financial figures or technical investigations….)
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